Research

Behavioral adjustments to mitigate increasing risk of STIs can increase or decrease the likelihood of pregnancy. This paper measures the effects of the arrival and spread of AIDS across U.S. cities in the 1980s and 1990s on births and abortions. I show that the AIDS epidemic increased the birth rate by 0.55 percent and the abortion rate by 1.77 percent. I find support for two underlying mechanisms to explain the increase in pregnancies. Some women opted into monogamous partnerships in response to the AIDS epidemic, with a corresponding increase in the marriage rate and improvement in infant health. Others switched from prescription contraceptive methods to condoms. These behavioral changes lowered the incidence of other sexually transmitted infections, but increased both planned and unplanned pregnancies.

We empirically investigate the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on domestic violence using incident-level data on both domestic-related calls for service and crime reports of domestic violence assaults from the 18 major US police departments for which both types of records are available. Although we confirm prior reports of an increase in domestic calls for service at the start of the pandemic, we find that the increase preceded mandatory shutdowns, and there was an incremental decline following the government imposition of restrictions. We also find no evidence that domestic violence crimes increased. Rather, police reports of domestic violence assaults declined significantly during the initial shutdown period. There was no significant change in intimate partner homicides during shutdown months and victimization survey reports of intimate partner violence were lower. Our results fail to support claims that shutdowns increased domestic violence and suggest caution before drawing inference or basing policy solely on data from calls to police.

Media Coverage: Freakonomics Radio Episode 505 - Did Domestic Violence Really Spike During the Pandemic?, Asterisk Magazine: Behind Closed Doors

From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers and news reports warned that restrictions on individual mobility and commercial activity could lead to a surge in domestic violence (DV). Some initial studies found evidence of greater DV incidence during the pandemic, but findings were inconsistent across locations and DV measures. This paper focuses on a single major city, Los Angeles (LA), to study the impact of the initial pandemic shutdown. We use three DV measures from police data (911 calls, crime incidents and arrests) as well as two measures from non-police administrative sources (the county DV hotline and hospital records). We find an increase in DV calls to the police and calls to the hotline. However, we find that DV crimes recorded by police and hospital visits by female assault (and DV) victims decreased significantly, suggesting that the increase in calls came from higher reporting rates. The decrease in DV crimes is not attributable to reductions in policing intensity, as the arrest rate for DV crimes was higher during the shutdown. We conclude that the initial LA shutdown increased the rates at which people contacted authorities about DV, but decreased the overall incidence of physical DV crimes in the population.

Media Coverage: IZA World of Labor - Measuring the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on domestic violence

This chapter examines the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on domestic violence (DV) in the United States. Despite widespread concerns that pandemic shutdowns could increase DV, initial studies found mixed evidence that varied across data sources and locations. We review the evolving literature on the effects of the pandemic and highlight results from studies that examine multiple measures of DV across a common set of large cities. These studies show that the conflicting early results are due to opposite effects of pandemic shutdowns on two measures of DV in police data: an increase in domestic violence 911 calls and a decrease in DV crime reports. In theory, this divergence can come from either higher DV reporting rates, possibly because of additional media attention to DV and greater third-party calling, or from lower policing intensity for DV crimes. Prior evidence from police data and other sources supports the conclusion that the increase in calls came from greater reporting, while the incidence of criminal DV decreased. Finally, we present new evidence drawing on police and hospitals records from across the state of California to show that DV crimes and hospital emergency department (ED) visits were both lower during pandemic shutdowns.

In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Democratic candidates lost fewer than predicted seats and stymied an expected red wave. News coverage and polling data represent this surprise Democratic success as a result of voters’ response to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Using county-level vote data, we find that the decrease in Republican vote margin in 2022 can be explained by demographic and economic factors. However, relative to the national average, the Republican vote margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points more in states with abortion-related ballot measures. Our results indicate that abortion ballot measures have spillover effects on election outcomes of a magnitude large enough to determine competitive races.