Research

Forthcoming at Journal of Health Economics

Behavioral adjustments to mitigate increasing risk of STIs can increase or decrease the likelihood of pregnancy. This paper measures the effects of the arrival and spread of AIDS across U.S. cities in the 1980s and 1990s on births and abortions. I show that the AIDS epidemic increased the birth rate by 0.55 percent and the abortion rate by 1.77 percent. I find support for two underlying mechanisms to explain the increase in pregnancies. Some women opted into monogamous partnerships in response to the AIDS epidemic, with a corresponding increase in the marriage rate and improvement in infant health. Others switched from prescription contraceptive methods to condoms. These behavioral changes lowered the incidence of other sexually transmitted infections, but increased both planned and unplanned pregnancies.

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with Amalia Miller and Carmit Segal

We empirically investigate the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on domestic violence using incident-level data on both domestic-related calls for service and crime reports of domestic violence assaults from the 18 major US police departments for which both types of records are available. Although we confirm prior reports of an increase in domestic calls for service at the start of the pandemic, we find that the increase preceded mandatory shutdowns, and there was an incremental decline following the government imposition of restrictions. We also find no evidence that domestic violence crimes increased. Rather, police reports of domestic violence assaults declined significantly during the initial shutdown period. There was no significant change in intimate partner homicides during shutdown months and victimization survey reports of intimate partner violence were lower. Our results fail to support claims that shutdowns increased domestic violence and suggest caution before drawing inference or basing policy solely on data from calls to police.

Media Coverage: Freakonomics Radio Episode 505 - Did Domestic Violence Really Spike During the Pandemic?, Asterisk Magazine: Behind Closed Doors

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with Amalia Miller and Carmit Segal

From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers and news reports warned that restrictions on individual mobility and commercial activity could lead to a surge in domestic violence (DV). Some initial studies found evidence of greater DV incidence during the pandemic, but findings were inconsistent across locations and DV measures. This paper focuses on a single major city, Los Angeles (LA), to study the impact of the initial pandemic shutdown. We use three DV measures from police data (911 calls, crime incidents and arrests) as well as two measures from non-police administrative sources (the county DV hotline and hospital records). We find an increase in DV calls to the police and calls to the hotline. However, we find that DV crimes recorded by police and hospital visits by female assault (and DV) victims decreased significantly, suggesting that the increase in calls came from higher reporting rates. The decrease in DV crimes is not attributable to reductions in policing intensity, as the arrest rate for DV crimes was higher during the shutdown. We conclude that the initial LA shutdown increased the rates at which people contacted authorities about DV, but decreased the overall incidence of physical DV crimes in the population.

Media Coverage: IZA World of Labor - Measuring the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on domestic violence

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with Yutong Chen, Amalia Miller, and Carmit Segal

This chapter examines the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on domestic violence (DV) in the United States. Despite widespread concerns that pandemic shutdowns could increase DV, initial studies found mixed evidence that varied across data sources and locations. We review the evolving literature on the effects of the pandemic and highlight results from studies that examine multiple measures of DV across a common set of large cities. These studies show that the conflicting early results are due to opposite effects of pandemic shutdowns on two measures of DV in police data: an increase in domestic violence 911 calls and a decrease in DV crime reports. In theory, this divergence can come from either higher DV reporting rates, possibly because of additional media attention to DV and greater third-party calling, or from lower policing intensity for DV crimes. Prior evidence from police data and other sources supports the conclusion that the increase in calls came from greater reporting, while the incidence of criminal DV decreased. Finally, we present new evidence drawing on police and hospitals records from across the state of California to show that DV crimes and hospital emergency department (ED) visits were both lower during pandemic shutdowns.

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with Rebecca Brough

Nearly two-thirds of states have abortion counseling laws requiring that women receive and acknowledge state-mandated information prior to giving their informed consent for abortion. The mandated information varies widely across states and may include scientifically inaccurate statements regarding the risks of abortion, illustrations of fetuses, or ultrasound requirements. Despite the ubiquity of these laws, little is known about the effect of counseling laws on women’s abortion decisions and birth rates. We compile a novel dataset of state-level abortion counseling laws and define a classification system for these laws, including fetal-focused counseling, risk-focused counseling, ultrasound requirements, and ultrasound display requirements. Using this novel dataset, we analyze the effect of abortion counseling laws on county-level birth rates. We find evidence that counseling laws affect birth rates, and show that effects are heterogeneous across type of counseling law as well as demographic groups.